Everyone continues to watch as the world's oil reserves are rapidly being depleted. The fact that oil prices have now fallen below 100 dollars per barrel (if we take the price of Brent crude) is more of an advance payment for a possible future agreement than a reflection of the reality "on the ground" (in storage facilities).
"On the ground," the guns are no longer firing to a large extent, but incidents are still occurring. These days, for example, after the alleged (according to the American version) attempt to attack another tanker that disrupted the passage regime through the Strait of Hormuz (an American tanker), Iran received a response from the United States (against launch systems and boats).
Two days later, Iran, as a "response," carried out an attack on a U.S. base in Kuwait, wounding several American soldiers and destroying two large strike drones. This is a kind of exchange of "courtesies."
All of this is happening against the backdrop of Trump's assurances that he has almost subdued Tehran regarding a peace agreement. On his own terms, of course (and how else could it be). Supposedly, Iran agreed to suspend its nuclear program and hand over its enriched uranium, while freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz would be restored as it was before the war. In other words, "all objectives of the operation have been achieved and the victory is complete and unconditional."
Iran's clarifications show that Trump is misleading people once again. The Iranians claim that freedom of movement through the Strait of Hormuz will exist. But only if the so-called "insurance fee" is paid into the Iranian treasury. As I understand it, the agreements specify a duty that Iran demanded for passage. From this duty, as Tehran especially emphasized yesterday, only Chinese and Russian ships will be exempt (because of their special merits).
At the same time, the United States will initially return half of the Iranian money frozen in its possession (12 billion dollars). Only after 30 days will Iran open the strait for passage. After another 30 days, the United States will have to return the remaining previously frozen funds to the Iranians and also lift a significant portion of the sanctions. In other words, the 12 billion is insurance against deception by the Americans. If they violate it, the situation will return to today's state, which, incidentally, also suits Iran perfectly.
Such an agreement is possible only if Israel ends the war against Lebanon and returns to its initial positions. This is also an extremely complicated story, and Trump must secure the "understanding" of his friend Netanyahu.
Oh yes, I almost forgot. Iran assumes no obligations whatsoever regarding its nuclear program, except that it will continue, as before, to develop it for peaceful purposes. The fate of the enriched uranium, meanwhile, will be resolved through negotiations.
These clarifications from Iran inspire much greater confidence in the world's media than Trump's empty boasting. Meanwhile, within the United States itself, the Democrats are calling this a plan of complete and unconditional surrender.
Which, in this form, it undoubtedly is.
Therefore, even the statements made recently in Singapore by the Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, that if Iran does not agree (to Trump's next plan), then "that thing" will happen again (blown to pieces), provoke only a slight Eastern smile in Tehran. Nothing more.
Because everyone understands everything perfectly. They understand that the United States is no longer the hegemon of the world and therefore can simply be told to go to hell (while periodically being given lessons with missiles and drones). In this way, they are being shown that their new place in the "world ranking table" is much lower than it was only four months ago. This is the new reality that Trump achieved with his reckless decision to attack Iran.
Against this background, I repeat, oil prices are in the range of 93–95 dollars per barrel. And global oil reserves continue to decline, reminding Trump that time in this story, as before, is working against him.
