That means it is expected to continue for at least another six months.
This is a war in which not only is Iran in a favorable position, but the United States also cannot attack its oil facilities. If it did, Iran would target the oil facilities of surrounding countries, which would create chaos in the oil market and send prices skyrocketing.
This allows Iran to economically sustain the war.
The fact that Americans are dropping bombs on mountains won’t change much, because Iranians are accustomed to an ascetic lifestyle. They fought Saddam Hussein for eight years and have lived under sanctions for 47 years. In fact, most Iranians don’t even know what a normal life looks like, but they are aware that if they endure, sanctions will end and Iran will officially become a great power—powerful enough to defeat the United States.
On the other hand, it is not in Russia’s interest for the war to end for three reasons:
• Due to rising oil prices, they earn an additional $150 million per day (about $4.5 billion per month).
• As long as the war continues, there are no sanctions on their oil (Trump temporarily lifted them because of the war).
• American weapons are no longer going to Ukraine, but to the Middle East.
It is also not in China’s interest for the war to end for two reasons:
• Russia and Iran supply them with oil, so they don’t have to fear shortages.
• Iran conditions tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz so that transactions are conducted in Chinese currency, yuan, rather than in dollars.
Now, why is this important? China and Russia want to defeat the United States, or remove it from its position as the strongest military power. However, American military power stems from economic strength, which in turn comes from the ability to print dollars endlessly. This is possible because Gulf monarchies sell oil in dollars—this is the petrodollar system.
Do you see the point? The United States does not have great economic power because it has a strong military; it’s the other way around.
And the secret of that economic power lies in the petrodollar. If you break the petrodollar, American military power collapses, and China and Russia get the chance to defeat the United States without even going to war. And in the simplest way possible—by ending the petrodollar. Trump, through his war with Iran, has put Iran in a position to control who can pass through Hormuz and under what conditions.
Russia and China will do everything to ensure Iran does not lose the war, while the United States has its hands tied:
• it cannot strike civilian targets
• all key Iranian military facilities are underground
• Iran has money due to rising oil prices, and Russia and China are motivated to supply it with weapons, even for free, because they understand that the end of the petrodollar means the end of the United States as a superpower
So, the entire war—and the reason Trump cannot stop it—is the petrodollar. Withdrawal would mean the end of the petrodollar.
In other words, this war is not being fought over missiles or nuclear weapons, but over whether oil will continue to be traded in dollars or not.
